Updated Oscars Predictions for 2021 Using Other Awards Nominations

The Critics Choice Awards are coming up in March and nominations have been released. So, was there any movement on the Oscars odds at top betting sites around the world?

We’ll see even more changes once the Golden Globes play out. We are inching closer and closer to the big day – April 25th– so, let’s have a look at the latest Academy Award developments.

Current Golden Globes Odds for Best Motion Picture, Drama

Nomadland has been on top of the Oscars odds boards pretty much since the odds were released. It also stands as the favorite to win at the Golden Globes at -120. Behind it is The Trial of the Chicago 7 at +225 and Mank at +500. Promising Young Woman and The Father are +1200 and +1600 respectively.

How this compares to the Critics Choice Awards is that we should see Mank moving up again after a strong showing at the Critics Choice Awards. This film has tons of GG award nominations … but didn’t do all that well at garnering nominations for the upcoming Screen Actors Guild Awards. Amanda Seyfried got the big SNUB for SAG nomination but she is up for a nomination at the CCAs and Mank is leading the charge with 12 nominations! Could all the love Mank is getting help to propel it past Nomadland for Best Picture at the Academy Awards?

It looks like Mank has moved into second-place behind Nomadland, so who knows what will end up happening. Remember, a couple of years ago, Once Upon a Tim in Hollywood led on the odds boards all fall and winter until the Golden Globes, then suddenly fell off after Parasite had such a strong showing.

Minari also got a lot of love with CCA nominations, breaking the double-digit mark at 10. So far, the smaller budget indie-flick has nominations for:

  • Best Picture
  • Best Director
  • Best Supporting Actress
  • Best Actor
  • Best Young Actor/Actress
  • Best Original Screenplay
  • Best Acting Ensemble
  • Best Score
  • Best Cinematography

That said, previous odds didn’t have Minari in the running for a Best Picture at the Academy Awards. In fact, because of its odds, I doubted it would even get an official nomination for Best Picture. I still have my doubts but with the number of nominations it’s receiving at the Critics Choice, maybe it will make the cut for an official Oscar nomination for Best Picture. Regardless, now at +1400, Minari is definitely on the up.

The Trial of the Chicago 7 is hanging in there with +600 odds to win Best Picture. But could we see a fall due to the lack of craft nominations at the Critics Choice Awards? The only thing outside of the prime awards (best picture, best director, best actor, etc. that it received was for editing.

Da 5 Bloods seems to be getting ignored at the SAGs. It’s snubs-Ville over in Delroy Lindo town. That said, the film rebounded with its Critics Choice nominations. But, I wonder if the SAG snubs will project onto the Oscars. We all know that the Academy has had issues with inclusiveness, and is still criticized for being made up of mostly old white men, so the very ‘black’ film, Da 5 Bloods could get snubbed there as well.

Not Much Movement

Nomadland, One Night in Miami, and Promising Young Woman all seem to be hanging where they were. Nomadland still leads on the odds boards for Best Picture at the Oscars. Each of these films got the nomination’s attention at other awards ceremonies to hold strong in the running for Oscars.

But the funny thing is, Nomadland got just half the Critics Choice nominations that Mank did. So, I wonder, will Mank win the award for Best Film? It fits the bill, it’s the type of movie rich old white men would love. And on a positive note,  it’s about Citizen Kane, the film that should have won Best Picture back in 1941-1942. So, will the Academy give this picture the award as a sort of retroactive award to Citizen Kane?

Prediction: Mank overtakes Nomadland and wins the Oscar for Best Picture

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